HVAC contractors, installers, and repair technicians across most of the country should prepare for a busy peak cooling season, as a strengthening El Niño weather system in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is driving National Weather Service forecasts of above-normal temperatures for approximately three-quarters of U.S. states through the summer months of June, July, and August, according to the NWS's Climate Prediction Center.
The El Niño — a warming of surface waters in a specific section of the central and eastern tropical Pacific — is expected to become stronger and more impactful later in the summer and extend into fall, said Anthony Artusa, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center. The transition from the La Niña conditions that prevailed earlier in 2026 to neutral conditions completed in March, and the El Niño that has since taken hold is expected to deepen over the coming months. The Old Farmer's Almanac, which issued its own summer 2026 forecast, reached the same conclusion. Sarah Perreault, managing editor of the Almanac, told ACHR News that it is definitely going to be warmer than normal in most of the country and that systems are going to overheat and homeowners are going to use much more air conditioning than they would in a normal year.
Where the Heat Will Be Concentrated
The highest probability of above-normal temperatures is forecast for the northern and central intermountain West and Rocky Mountain region — an area running from Idaho and western Montana southeastward through parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, and from the Pacific Northwest eastward through most of Colorado. Most other states — including much of the West, Pacific Northwest, Plains, South, Appalachian region, and Atlantic coast from Florida to Maine — are also likely to see above-normal temperatures, at a somewhat lower probability than the Rockies and intermountain region. An area centered in the upper Midwest — Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, most of Illinois, and parts of the Dakotas and Ohio — shows equal chances of above- or below-normal temperatures, making it the primary exception to the warm national pattern.
AccuWeather is projecting that the number of 90°F-plus days will be at or above the 15-year average in several major cities including Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Portland, and Phoenix. In Portland, between 22 and 30 days of 90°F-plus temperatures are forecast, against an average of 20. In Phoenix, up to 190 days of 90°F-plus temperatures are forecast against an average of 180 — figures that translate directly into sustained demand for HVAC service and cooling equipment throughout the region's markets.
HARDI: Weather Will Matter More Than the Economy
The Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International emphasized in its June Data Driven Newsletter that weather will matter more than the economy for HVAC distribution sales this summer — a direct statement of the industry's principal demand driver heading into peak season. HARDI's analysis noted that the number of cooling degree days in its western region in 2025 was below normal for each of the five peak months from April through September except August, and that the western region with below-normal cooling degree days was the laggard among all seven HARDI distribution regions for sales growth last year. The El Niño forecast that puts above-normal temperatures across much of the West in 2026 is therefore particularly significant for distributor sales recovery in the region that underperformed most significantly in 2025.
What Contractors Should Do Now
The forecast creates a specific operational planning window for HVAC contractors. With above-normal temperatures projected for most of the service area across the country, contractors should evaluate their technician scheduling capacity for emergency calls during July and August — historically the two months with the highest demand for cooling system service. Equipment with low refrigerant charge, aging capacitors, dirty coils, or compromised contactors that might have survived last summer with below-normal temperatures may fail earlier this summer as systems are stressed by sustained heat. DuraPlas's 2026 Summer Cooling Report found that 50% of American homeowners have skipped HVAC maintenance to save money heading into summer, meaning a significant portion of installed residential systems are entering the peak season without recent professional maintenance — exactly the conditions that produce a surge in emergency service calls when temperatures climb above seasonal norms for sustained periods.
For distributors, the demand forecast justifies carrying adequate summer equipment inventory now, before residential emergency replacement demand hits peak volume. The simultaneous arrival of the El Niño-driven warm forecast and the post-tariff adjustment supply chain — where Carrier, Lennox, Trane, and other major manufacturers have implemented price increases but also made proactive pre-buy deals available in earlier months — means that distributors who positioned inventory aggressively in the spring may see higher throughput and margin on equipment sold during peak-season emergency replacements.
