The Dodge Momentum Index fell 1.9% in June to a reading of 271.7 (2000=100), pulling back from an upwardly revised May level of 277.1, as data center planning activity moderated from the record pace that has driven nonresidential construction growth for much of 2026, according to Dodge Construction Network. The monthly gauge, which tracks the value of nonresidential building projects entering planning and is designed to lead construction spending by 12 to 18 months, is closely watched by HVAC equipment manufacturers, mechanical contractors and distributors gauging commercial and institutional demand heading into 2027.
Boston-based Dodge Construction Network, which has published the index monthly since 1996, reported that commercial planning declined 6.8% in June while institutional planning momentum grew 10.9%. Despite the pullback, the index remains up 21.8% compared with June 2025, with both the commercial and institutional segments posting identical year-over-year gains.
Dodge Momentum Index Shows Data Centers Still Driving Growth, But Pace Moderates
Data center planning momentum slowed from the extraordinary levels recorded earlier this year, and that deceleration was the primary driver of June's commercial-segment decline, according to Sarah Martin, director of economic research at Dodge Construction Network. "Despite June's pullback, nonresidential planning remains on solid ground," Martin said in the release. "Data center activity continued to drive the index, but its pace moderated from the extraordinary levels seen in recent months and drove the DMI to pull back over the month. Otherwise, planning activity accelerated across nearly every other sector." Outside of data centers, the commercial segment of the Dodge Momentum Index would have been up 7.6% year-over-year, the firm said, indicating traditional office buildings, warehouses, retail stores and hotels are contributing to planning activity even as the largest data center projects pause.
Among the commercial projects entering planning in June were the $500 million Stak Energy AI Data Center Campus in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska; the $480 million Project Swan Data Center Complex in Lakeland, Florida; and the $456.8 million Parcel A Data Center in Manassas, Virginia. In total, 59 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning during the month, Dodge Construction Network reported.
What the Dodge Momentum Index Means for HVAC and Mechanical Contractors
For HVAC equipment manufacturers and mechanical contractors, the institutional side of the Dodge Momentum Index carries particular weight. Healthcare planning continued to accelerate in June, alongside recreational, government and religious building activity, while educational planning — which includes K-12 and higher-education work that typically involves substantial HVAC replacement and indoor-air-quality upgrades — slowed for a second consecutive month. The largest institutional projects entering planning included the $437 million DCSO Correctional Facility replacement in Nashville, Tennessee; the $320 million Cone Health Hospital in Winston-Salem, North Carolina; and the $303 million El Camino Health Hospital in Los Gatos, California. Hospitals and other healthcare facilities typically require extensive HVAC, air-filtration and building-automation investment, giving mechanical contractors and equipment suppliers early visibility into a segment of demand that is accelerating even as commercial planning cools.
Data centers remain the single largest driver of the broader index, and their cooling requirements — from chillers and computer-room air handlers to liquid cooling systems — have become one of the fastest-growing categories of demand for commercial HVAC manufacturers over the past two years. The moderation in data center planning growth recorded in June does not necessarily signal a pullback in HVAC-related project scope for data centers already moving through design and construction, but it does suggest the rate of new data center planning starts may be leveling off from the pace set earlier in 2026.
The June data follows a stretch of strong readings for the index, which Dodge Construction Network revised upward for May, underscoring how volatile month-to-month swings tied to a handful of large data center projects can be within an otherwise steady expansion in nonresidential planning activity.
Educational planning's second straight monthly slowdown stands out against gains recorded across most other institutional categories, Dodge Construction Network said. The Dodge Momentum Index is calculated from a three-month moving average of nonresidential building projects entering planning and is compiled from the firm's national project database, which tracks planning, bidding and construction activity across the commercial and institutional sectors — the same database many HVAC manufacturers and distributors use to forecast regional equipment demand.
Mechanical contractors and HVAC equipment suppliers with exposure to large commercial and institutional projects typically treat month-to-month index swings as noise, focusing instead on the 12-to-18-month lead time the index is designed to provide — a horizon that, based on June's data, still points toward accelerating institutional demand even as the pace of new data center planning starts moderates.
