The residential equipment market is sending two very different signals.
Central AC and heat-pump shipments increased 21.7% year over year in June.
At the same time, first-half shipments of residential gas storage water heaters were down 3.6%, while electric storage shipments fell 5.4%.
For contractors expanding into multiple trades, that divergence matters.
HVAC Is Recovering From a Deep Drop
The HVAC comparison comes after a weak 2025.
June 2025 central AC and heat-pump shipments had fallen approximately 22% year over year.
So some of today's growth reflects recovery from a depressed base.
Still, five consecutive months of positive HVAC shipment growth is a meaningful change in direction.
Water Heaters Have Not Followed
Gas storage water heaters recorded their lowest first-half shipment total since 2016.
Electric volumes also remained below last year.
That suggests replacement and inventory dynamics are playing out differently across major home-equipment categories.
Whole-Home Contractors Should Pay Attention
Many HVAC companies are adding plumbing.
That means they are increasingly exposed to multiple equipment cycles simultaneously.
A contractor could see strong cooling replacement demand while water-heater activity remains softer.
The diversification can protect the business — but only if owners understand that each category has its own market dynamics.
One Housing Market, Different Equipment Cycles
The same homeowner may postpone one project while being forced into another.
An AC failure during extreme heat can create an immediate replacement.
An aging water heater that still functions may survive another year.
That makes demand highly category-specific.
The 2026 home-services market is not simply “up” or “down.” HVAC and plumbing equipment are currently telling different stories.
