The share of U.S. consumers who say it is a good time to buy major household durables — a category that includes HVAC systems and other big-ticket home equipment — fell in May to its lowest level in the past 12 months, according to the University of Michigan's monthly Survey of Consumers, marking the first month-over-month decline of the year on that measure.

Just 27% of respondents across all age and income groups said May was a good time to buy major household items, down from a steady 32% reading recorded in each month from January through April. The 5-percentage-point drop ended a four-month stretch of flat sentiment and pushed the indicator to its weakest point since the prior spring.

The Data in Detail

On the opposite side of the same survey question, the share of respondents who said it was a bad time to buy major household items rose to 69%, the highest reading recorded so far this year and matching the level last seen in December 2025. Among respondents who characterized May as a bad time to buy, the most commonly cited reason was that "prices are high," according to the survey's underlying response data.

The University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers is conducted monthly and is widely used by economists as a leading indicator of household spending intentions, including for large, discretionary purchases such as HVAC system replacements that consumers can often delay for a period of time even after a system begins showing signs of failure.

Why This Indicator Matters for HVAC Demand

Unlike categories such as groceries or fuel, HVAC system replacement is a purchase many homeowners can postpone, particularly for repairable rather than fully failed equipment, making consumer sentiment around big-ticket spending a closely watched proxy for near-term replacement demand. A decline in the share of consumers who view current conditions as favorable for major purchases has historically preceded softer replacement-driven demand in residential HVAC, as more homeowners opt to repair aging systems rather than replace them outright.

The May reading adds to a separate data point tracked by field-service platform Housecall Pro, which has reported that HVAC repairs now account for roughly 88% of service jobs, as homeowners increasingly delay full system replacement. Taken together, the two data sets point toward a residential replacement market where affordability concerns are actively shaping purchase timing decisions industry-wide.

A separate shipment data set tracked by AHRI shows a related pattern in adjacent equipment categories: gas water heater shipments have fallen to a six-year low even as electric water heater shipments have held up, a divergence that industry trackers have tied to both electrification trends and consumers gravitating toward lower-upfront-cost electric replacements amid broader price sensitivity. While water heaters are a distinct product category from HVAC systems, the shipment pattern reinforces the same underlying theme reflected in the University of Michigan data: cost-conscious consumers are making equipment replacement decisions differently than they were earlier in the year.

Price Sensitivity Comes Amid Other Cost Pressures

The survey's finding that "prices are high" was the top-cited reason for negative sentiment arrives as the HVAC industry has absorbed a series of manufacturer price increases tied to tariff costs, A2L refrigerant transition expenses, and materials inflation over the preceding several months. While Section 232 tariffs on HVAC-related steel, aluminum and copper were reduced from 25% to 15% effective June 8, that relief had not yet been reflected in the market at the time the May survey was conducted, meaning the sentiment reading captures a period when consumers were still absorbing the cumulative effect of the higher tariff rate and multiple rounds of manufacturer price increases.

What's Next

The University of Michigan survey will release its June reading in the coming weeks, which will show whether the tariff reduction that took effect June 8, along with any pass-through of that relief into retail equipment pricing, had an effect on consumer purchasing sentiment. Distributors and contractors tracking replacement demand will likely watch the June and July readings closely for signs of whether the affordability concerns reflected in the May data represent a temporary dip or the start of a more sustained pullback in discretionary HVAC replacement spending heading into the back half of the cooling season.