HARDI Distributor Sales Fall 4.8% as Cooling Season Gets Off to a Slow Start

The headline looks rough, but one fewer selling day means the market was closer to flat than the number suggests

HVAC distributor sales fell 4.8% in May, delivering a disappointing start to the first meaningful month of the cooling season.

The latest figures come from Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International’s monthly TRENDS report, which tracks sales across participating HARDI distributors.

At first glance, a nearly 5% decline sounds like a clear warning that demand is weakening.

The reality is a little more complicated.

May 2026 had one fewer billing day than May 2025. HARDI estimates that sales would have been approximately flat year over year if both months had contained the same number of selling days.

So the market may not be shrinking as quickly as the headline suggests.

But it is not exactly booming either.

A Slow Start to the Summer

May is an important month for HVAC distributors.

It is typically when cooling demand begins to accelerate, contractors start buying more equipment and replacement activity picks up across much of the country.

That makes the 4.8% decline difficult to ignore, even with the calendar adjustment.

HARDI Senior Market Analyst Brian Loftus described the result as a poor start to the cooling season, while emphasizing that the missing billing day made the headline appear worse than the underlying performance.

The results also followed stronger growth earlier in the spring. HARDI distributor sales increased 5.4% in March and 4.5% in April before turning negative in May.

For distributors and manufacturers, the concern is whether May was simply a soft month—or the beginning of a slower summer.

Weather Is Doing More of the Work

HVAC demand is always tied closely to weather.

A stretch of hot temperatures can quickly fill contractor schedules, move equipment out of distributor warehouses and generate emergency replacement calls.

A mild start to summer can have the opposite effect.

HARDI said an early start to cooling season helped sales in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. Other parts of the country faced more difficult comparisons with last year.

That creates an uneven market.

One distributor may be struggling to keep equipment in stock while another is waiting for demand to arrive.

One contractor may be booked several weeks out while another is spending more time following up on unsold estimates.

The next few months will show whether sustained summer heat can lift demand across a broader part of the country.

Annual Growth Is Still Positive

The May decline did not push the industry into negative territory over the longer term.

HARDI reported that distributor sales for the 12 months through May were still up 2.6%.

That suggests the market is continuing to grow—but only at a modest pace.

The annual growth rate has also been slowing. It stood at 3.3% through March, declined to 2.8% through April and reached 2.6% through May.

For distributors, low-single-digit growth leaves less room for error.

Inventory levels, staffing, freight costs and pricing decisions become more important when revenue is no longer rising quickly enough to cover operational mistakes.

Manufacturers will also be watching closely. A slow sell-through at the distributor level can eventually lead to smaller orders, higher inventory and more promotional activity.

Contractors May Be Seeing a Mixed Market

The HARDI figures measure distributor sales, not the number of service calls or installations completed by contractors.

Still, distributor activity provides a useful view of what is moving through the HVAC supply chain.

A slower month may indicate that contractors are purchasing fewer systems, working through inventory they already hold or seeing homeowners delay replacement decisions.

It could also reflect a shift in product mix.

Contractors may still be busy with repairs and maintenance while completing fewer full-system replacements. That can produce packed schedules without generating the same equipment volume for distributors.

Higher equipment prices may also be affecting purchasing behavior.

When systems become more expensive, homeowners are more likely to repair older equipment, select lower-priced options or delay non-emergency work.

That means a contractor can remain busy while distributors and manufacturers feel softer demand further up the chain.

Customers Are Paying Quickly

One positive sign in the report was the speed at which distributors are collecting payment.

HARDI’s Days Sales Outstanding measurement came in at less than 38 days during May.

That was quicker than the roughly 40 days reported in May 2022, 2023 and 2024.

For distributors, that matters.

Slower sales are much easier to manage when contractors are paying their bills on time. A combination of weak demand and late payments would create a much more difficult environment.

The latest data does not suggest that credit conditions are deteriorating significantly across the channel.

Inventory Will Be the Next Question

The biggest risk for distributors is not one soft month.

It is entering peak season with inventory purchased for a level of demand that never arrives.

Many distributors increased inventory ahead of refrigerant transitions, tariffs, manufacturer price increases and the expected summer rush.

If cooling demand accelerates, that inventory will be valuable.

If the season remains uneven, distributors may find themselves carrying more equipment than planned into the second half of the year.

That could create pressure to reduce future orders, offer discounts or move older inventory before the heating season begins.

For manufacturers, the important number will not simply be shipments into the channel. It will be how quickly those products move from distributor branches into contractors’ trucks.

Not a Collapse, but Not a Strong Start

The 4.8% decline should not be read as evidence that the HVAC market has suddenly collapsed.

One fewer billing day explains much of the drop, and annual sales remain positive.

But the calendar does not completely remove the concern.

After a strong March and April, May was roughly flat on an adjusted basis during a period when the industry would normally hope to see momentum building.

Distributors now need the weather—and the replacement market—to do more of the work.

As HARDI’s Loftus put it, the industry may need some “summer magic” to keep annual growth from remaining stuck in the low single digits.

The next several months will determine whether May was simply a slow start or an early warning that the 2026 cooling season will fall short of expectations.