U.S. shipments of air conditioners and heat pumps jumped more than 20% in June, adding to signs that the residential HVAC market is beginning to recover from a weak start to 2026.

The residential HVAC market may finally be finding its footing.

U.S. manufacturers shipped just over 1.02 million central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in June, up 21.7% compared with June 2025, according to the latest AHRI shipment data.

Central air conditioners led the rebound:

  • Central AC: 605,033 units, up 26.8%
  • Heat pumps: 418,538 units, up 15.1%
  • Combined AC and heat pumps: 1.02 million units, up 21.7%

The improvement was not limited to a single month.

During the second quarter, combined AC and heat-pump shipments reached 2.78 million units, up 11.3% from Q2 2025. Central AC shipments increased 15.3%, while heat pumps grew 6.3%.

That is a meaningful change after a sluggish start to the year.

Recovery, Not a Boom

There is one important caveat.

June 2025 was an unusually weak month, which makes this year's percentage gains look particularly large.

June 2026 central AC shipments, for example, were still below June 2024 levels. Combined cooling shipments in Q2 were only about 1.4% above Q2 2024.

So this does not necessarily signal another HVAC boom.

It looks more like the market is normalizing.

That interpretation is also consistent with recent manufacturer results. Carrier reported improving residential sales, while Lennox and Trane Technologies have also pointed toward better conditions compared with the beginning of the year.

Heat Pumps Continue Taking Share

One longer-term shift is much clearer.

Through the first six months of 2026, heat-pump shipments reached 2.16 million units, up 3.8% from the same period last year.

Gas-furnace shipments moved in the opposite direction, falling 6.2% year over year to 1.55 million units.

The change becomes even more apparent over a longer period.

Compared with June 2016, June 2026 heat-pump shipments were 42.7% higher, while central AC shipments were 17% lower. Ten years ago, traditional AC represented 71% of combined AC and heat-pump shipments in June. Today, that share has fallen to 59%.

What It Means for Contractors

For contractors, the latest numbers are encouraging but probably do not justify calling the residential slowdown over just yet.

Replacement demand appears to be improving, equipment availability has normalized following the A2L transition, and contractors are becoming more comfortable selling newer refrigerant systems.

But consumers remain price-sensitive, residential construction is still uneven, and manufacturers continue to describe the market as a recovery rather than a return to rapid growth.

The clearest takeaway from the latest data is simpler:

After a difficult start to 2026, more HVAC equipment is moving through the channel again.

And if that trend continues through the summer, June may prove to have been the point where the residential HVAC market finally started turning the corner.