A forecast from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association projects that residential electricity bills for June through September 2026 could run approximately 8.5% higher than the same period last summer. The drivers are familiar: data center load growth putting new pressure on regional grids, utility rate changes in multiple markets, higher fuel costs flowing through to consumers, and ongoing investment in aging power infrastructure being passed through in rate adjustments.
For HVAC contractors, this number is not just macroeconomic background. It is a sales tool. And most contractors are not using it.
The efficiency upgrade conversation: A homeowner facing an 8.5% increase in summer electricity costs is in the market for a conversation about efficiency — whether they know it yet or not. A technician or comfort advisor who opens a service call with the line that summer bills are running significantly higher this year and then connects that context to the system performance findings has a warmer audience for efficiency upgrade recommendations than one who leads with equipment specifications.
The specific dollar framing: Contractors who can translate the 8.5% increase into a monthly dollar figure — appropriate for the customer's home size, equipment age, and local utility rate — are creating a concrete anchor for the upgrade or maintenance recommendation. A customer who sees a tangible comparison between current monthly cost and the projected savings on a higher-efficiency system or a properly maintained unit is making a different decision than one who hears abstract efficiency ratings.
The maintenance call opportunity: The DuraPlas 2026 Summer Cooling Report found that 50% of homeowners skipped HVAC maintenance this summer to save money. The 8.5% bill increase creates a reframe opportunity: deferred maintenance on an inefficient or dirty system costs more in electricity than it saves in service fees. Contractors who connect those two data points for customers who have postponed tune-ups are converting with a message grounded in the customer's own cost concern.
The dehumidification angle: Rising electricity costs are also driving interest in dehumidification solutions, particularly in humid markets where an oversized or inefficient system runs more cooling cycles than necessary to achieve comfort. A properly sized, properly functioning system with appropriate dehumidification runs fewer hours — and lower bills. Contractors with dehumidification products in their offering have a current-cost-reduction argument that fits exactly the customer concern driving 2026 purchasing decisions.
The heat pump water heater note: With AO Smith raising water heater prices 7% on June 22 and electricity bills climbing, homeowners with gas water heaters are facing a two-direction cost squeeze on utility bills. Heat pump water heaters use roughly two-thirds less electricity than standard electric units. For contractors doing water heater replacements, the current utility cost environment strengthens the efficiency payback argument substantially.
