With private equity consolidation accelerating across HVAC services in 2026 — Apollo's $2 billion investment in Apex Service Partners and dozens of smaller platform acquisitions closing every quarter — more HVAC business owners are sitting across the table from buyers than at any point in the industry's history. Matt Michel, the longtime industry figure and co-founder of the Service Roundtable, says most of them are preparing for the wrong thing.
On a recent episode of the ACHR News Newsmakers Podcast, Michel discussed the emotional dimension of selling a business covered in his book, co-authored with Brandon Jacob, The Business Exit Roller Coaster. The book is based on interviews with nearly 100 business owners who sold their companies, along with M&A advisors, investment bankers, and buyers — and Michel says a consistent pattern emerged: owners who prepared meticulously for the financial and legal mechanics of a sale were often blindsided by the emotional difficulty of actually going through with it.
The golf analogy: In a related column, Michel uses a golf comparison to explain the gap between an amateur and a professional seller. An amateur golfer and a touring professional can look similar swinging at a driving range — the visible mechanics aren't dramatically different. The difference shows up under tournament pressure, in decision-making, course management, and mental composure when it matters. Michel argues the same is true of business sales: the financial structure of a deal can look similar across sellers, but the owners who navigate the process well are the ones who have prepared for the psychological pressure of negotiation, due diligence scrutiny, and the identity shift that comes after the business that defined their adult life changes hands.
Why this matters more in 2026 specifically: The current HVAC M&A environment is moving fast, with competitive buyer processes, tight diligence timelines, and deal structures that increasingly include earnouts or rollover equity rather than a clean, simple cash exit. Owners navigating that complexity while also managing the emotional weight of the decision — leaving a business they built, changing their daily identity and routine, and in many cases continuing to work for new ownership during a transition period — face a genuinely difficult experience that has little to do with whether they got a good multiple.
The practical advice: Michel's consistent recommendation, echoed across his writing and interviews, is that owners considering a sale should engage experienced advisors well before they are emotionally or financially ready to transact — not to rush the process, but to use the planning period itself as preparation for the psychological reality of the eventual exit. Proactive mental preparation, in his framing, is as much a part of deal readiness as clean financials and a strong management team.
For HVAC contractors who are years away from a sale, Michel's broader point is still relevant: the businesses that command the best multiples and navigate transitions most smoothly are run by owners who have already begun separating their personal identity from the daily operations of the business — building the kind of management depth and operational systems that make the company valuable to a buyer and bearable to eventually leave.
