Hyperscaler Capex Hits $593 Billion in 2026: The HVAC Cooling Opportunity Explained

The six largest US hyperscalers — Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Meta, Apple, and Oracle — are forecast by Bloomberg Intelligence to spend more than $593 billion in capital expenditure in 2026. That is a 45% increase from an already record 2025. And inside that enormous number is a line item that the HVAC industry is only beginning to fully appreciate: cooling infrastructure.

For HVAC manufacturers, commercial contractors, and distributors who have been focused on the residential market correction of 2025 and 2026, the hyperscaler capex boom is the most important adjacent opportunity the industry has seen in a generation. Understanding where the cooling dollars go, which HVAC companies are capturing them, and what it takes to access this market is now essential intelligence — not optional context.

What $593 Billion in Data Center Capex Actually Means

To contextualise the scale: $593 billion is more than the entire annual GDP of several major economies. It is larger than the annual revenue of the entire US construction industry. And it is being spent primarily on infrastructure to support artificial intelligence workloads — computing, storage, networking, and the cooling systems that keep all of it operational.

The 45% year-over-year increase from 2025 reflects the acceleration of AI deployment following the commercial breakthrough of large language models and the subsequent race among hyperscalers to build the computing infrastructure that gives each of them a competitive advantage in AI services. This is not a one-time capital surge — it is the beginning of a multi-decade infrastructure build that will require ongoing construction, expansion, and cooling system replacement as technology evolves.

Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts the six largest US hyperscalers will spend more than $593 billion in capital expenditure in 2026 — a 45% increase from 2025 — driven primarily by AI infrastructure investment. Cooling systems represent a growing and critical share of data centre capital expenditure, projected to reach $45.8 billion globally by 2033.

Where the Cooling Budget Goes

Cooling represents approximately 30 to 40% of data centre operating energy consumption and a significant portion of the initial capital expenditure for new facilities. Within the $593 billion hyperscaler capex figure, cooling-related spend is estimated in the range of $15 to $25 billion for 2026 — across equipment procurement, installation, commissioning, and associated infrastructure.

The cooling budget within a data centre project breaks down roughly as follows:

• Chilled water plant equipment (chillers, cooling towers, pumps): 25 to 35% of cooling capital expenditure

• Computer room air handling units and precision cooling: 20 to 30% of cooling capital expenditure

• Liquid cooling infrastructure (CDUs, rear-door heat exchangers, piping): 15 to 25% and growing as liquid cooling adoption accelerates

• Building mechanical and controls: 15 to 20% of cooling capital expenditure

• Commissioning, testing, and first-year service: 5 to 10% of cooling capital expenditure

For HVAC manufacturers with relevant products and for commercial mechanical contractors with data centre installation capability, these figures represent accessible market opportunity — not abstract projections.

Which HVAC Segments Benefit Most

The hyperscaler capex boom benefits different HVAC market segments in different ways and on different timelines:

• Large-tonnage chilled water equipment manufacturers: Centrifugal chillers, cooling towers, and associated plant equipment are the foundational cooling infrastructure for hyperscale data centres. Manufacturers including Carrier, Trane, York (Johnson Controls), and Daikin Applied are all positioned to supply this segment. Daikin Applied's new modular manufacturing facility specifically targets this market.

• Liquid cooling specialists: Companies like Advanced Cooling Technologies (now Blackstone-backed), Vertiv, and emerging players including DataCool and LG's data centre division are competing for the fastest-growing segment — liquid cooling solutions for high-density AI GPU deployments.

• Commercial mechanical contractors: The installation, commissioning, and ongoing service of data centre HVAC systems requires large commercial mechanical contractors with engineering capability, safety certifications, and experience with mission-critical infrastructure. This market is not accessible to residential HVAC contractors without significant capability development.

• HVAC distributors: Distributors with data centre-relevant product lines — large-tonnage equipment, precision cooling units, liquid cooling components — are seeing growth in this category even as residential distribution faces headwinds.

How to Position Your Business for Hyperscaler Contracts

The hyperscaler market is not open to all comers. Entering it requires deliberate capability development and relationship building:

• Develop data centre HVAC certifications: Several manufacturers including Vertiv, Schneider Electric, and Daikin Applied offer data centre-specific contractor certification programmes. These certifications signal capability to the mechanical engineering firms that specify contractors for data centre projects.

• Connect with mechanical engineering firms: Data centre HVAC work is specified by mechanical engineers, not directly by the hyperscaler. Building relationships with the engineering consultancies that design hyperscale facility mechanical systems is the entry point to the market.

• Build safety and quality documentation: Hyperscaler projects require detailed safety plans, quality management documentation, and commissioning procedures. Contractors without this documentation in place cannot compete for the work regardless of technical capability.

• Start with colocation: The colocation data centre market — facilities that lease computing infrastructure to multiple tenants — has lower barriers to entry than direct hyperscaler work and provides the track record and reference projects needed to pursue larger opportunities.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is hyperscaler capex?

Hyperscaler capex refers to the capital expenditure of the world's largest cloud computing companies — including Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and others — on data centre infrastructure including computing hardware, networking, power systems, and cooling. Bloomberg Intelligence projects the six largest US hyperscalers will spend more than $593 billion in 2026.

How much do hyperscalers spend on HVAC cooling?

Cooling represents approximately 30 to 40% of data centre operating energy consumption and a significant portion of capital expenditure. Within the projected $593 billion in 2026 hyperscaler capex, cooling-related equipment and installation spend is estimated in the range of $15 to $25 billion.

Can HVAC contractors work on data center projects?

Commercial mechanical contractors with large-tonnage HVAC experience, data centre-specific certifications, engineering capability, and mission-critical project experience can access data centre HVAC work. Residential HVAC contractors typically require significant capability development before pursuing hyperscale projects.

Why are hyperscalers spending so much on data centers in 2026?

Hyperscaler capital expenditure is accelerating because of the AI infrastructure race — each of the major cloud companies is investing aggressively to build the computing infrastructure needed to train and deploy AI models at commercial scale. The 45% year-over-year increase from 2025 reflects the urgency and scale of this investment.