Three months of positive year-over-year numbers from AHRI confirm the correction has ended. What they don't confirm is that demand is actually back.

After nine straight months of declines — some of them brutal — HVAC shipments have now posted positive growth for three months running. That's worth marking. It's also worth reading carefully, because not everything in these numbers points the same direction.

The Numbers

According to AHRI data released Friday, U.S. shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps rose 5.1% year-over-year in April. Air conditioners were up 8%. Heat pumps gained 1.8%. That follows positive readings in February and March — three consecutive months of growth after a nine-month slide that ran from April 2025 through January 2026.

At the distributor level, HARDI's April TRENDS Report confirmed it. Distributor sales were up 4.5%, with the warmest region posting near 20% growth and the coldest down 5.5%. Weather drove the numbers. Where it was hot, things moved.

What's Still Broken

Here's the number that doesn't make the headline: from January through April, combined AC and heat pump shipments totaled roughly 2.77 million units — still down 3.5% from the same period in 2025. And 2025 was already a disaster, with shipments falling between 26% and nearly 50% year-over-year at the summer peak.

HARDI was pointed about this: the shipment bottom signals the end of the correction, not the start of a demand surge. The first is a supply chain milestone — distributors burned through the A2L inventory overhang, the sales-to-inventory ratio recovered, manufacturers are shipping again. The second requires something harder to manufacture: homeowners deciding to replace their systems. HARDI noted that distributor sales growth remains subdued alongside flat existing home sales, a weak job market, and elevated inflation.

The next few months will look very good on paper — June through September 2025 were the worst of the correction, so year-over-year comparisons are going to jump. Don't read a "shipments up 30%" headline in August as proof the market is booming. The relevant question is whether absolute volume is back to pre-correction levels. Right now, it isn't.

What This Means for Contractors

On pricing: Tariff relief kicked in June 8 — Section 232 rates cut from 25% to 15% — but that happened the same week manufacturers announced price hikes on motors, duct, insulation, and valves. Pull your June invoices before assuming your costs went down.

On inventory: Distributor stock has normalized, which means availability is stable but surplus is gone. If demand spikes mid-summer, don't count on your supply house having extra equipment sitting around.

On repair vs. replace: R-410A refrigerant that cost $8 a pound in 2022 now runs $25 to $40 at retail. A significant leak repair on an older system can easily exceed the cost of putting that money toward a new unit. Run the math with your customers — the replacement conversation has never been easier to have.

The Bottom Line

The correction is over. The inventory overhang has cleared and shipments are tracking upward. What isn't confirmed yet is whether homeowners are actually buying systems at a pace that matches. That verdict gets written this summer, in real time, on your call log and invoice stack.

The signal is green. The season is here.