As 2026 entered its planning cycle, the HVAC industry's largest residential manufacturers converged on a remarkably consistent forecast: a soft first half of the year followed by stabilization or modest recovery in the back half, with full-year growth landing in the low single digits despite the weak start. With the year now well past its midpoint, that forecast is worth revisiting against what has actually happened.
What Rheem projected: Kevin Ruppelt, senior vice president and general manager of U.S. Air at Rheem North America, said the company expected the HVAC industry to see modest growth in the low single digits for 2026 overall, based on current demand patterns, regulatory drivers, and the ongoing shift toward electrification and higher-efficiency technologies. Rheem's continued investment in its multi-trade Pro Partner program and its broader water heating and HVAC product strategy reflects a company positioning for that modest-but-positive full-year outcome.
What Bosch projected: David Budzinski, deputy CEO global and president Americas for Bosch Home Comfort, was specific about the shape of the year: based on internal analysis and industry expectations, Bosch anticipated the residential market would be down in the first half of 2026, recovering in the second half, and finishing the full year in the low single-digit growth range. Budzinski also pointed to greater stabilization around A2L refrigerants in 2026 as a factor supporting that recovery, following a 2025 in which a significant last-time buy of legacy refrigerant product had distorted shipment patterns.
What Trane projected: Trane Technologies projected a similarly shaped year, with the first half remaining difficult even as the one-time disruptions tied to the refrigerant transition — including an unexpected canister shortage that caught the entire industry off guard in 2025 — faded. Donald Simmons, group president of Americas at Trane, noted that nobody in the industry had predicted the canister shortage that complicated the 2025 refrigerant transition, underscoring how much of 2025's volatility was a one-time disruption rather than a structural demand problem.
How the actual year has tracked: The data points available through mid-2026 are broadly consistent with the cautious-optimism forecast OEMs set at the start of the year. HVAC equipment shipments have shown growth for three consecutive months as of mid-June, though cumulative volume has not closed the gap left by 2025's downturn. Carrier, Trane, and Lennox have each reported Q1 results showing continued residential softness offset by exceptionally strong commercial and data center performance. The shape of the year — soft residential, strong commercial, gradual stabilization rather than dramatic recovery — has matched what manufacturers projected closely enough that there have been few major surprises in either direction through the first half.
What this means heading into the back half: If manufacturer guidance holds, contractors should expect residential demand to continue gradually improving through Q3 and Q4 rather than snapping back sharply. The NOAA above-normal summer temperature forecast adds upside risk to that gradual recovery scenario — a genuinely hot summer could pull the recovery forward faster than the cautious base case manufacturers built their 2026 plans around.
