After eight straight months of declining shipments, the HVAC market finally caught a break in February. Total air conditioners and heat pumps came in at 638,841 units, essentially flat year over year, but the headline number buried the real story.
Heat pumps were up 16% compared to February 2025. That's the biggest February jump since 2021 and it's carrying the whole market on its back right now.
The rest of the picture is less rosy. Air conditioners alone fell 4.2%. Gas furnaces dropped 12.9% year over year. Oil furnaces down 4.5%. For the second year running, heat pumps outsold warm-air furnaces in February, even as the current administration rolls back policies that favor electrification.
The market isn't recovering. It's reshaping. Contractors who've been waiting for a return to the old normal should be paying attention to where the volume is actually moving.
