After back to back months of declining sales, HVAC distributors caught a break in February. HARDI's monthly TRENDS report shows distributor sales up 4.6% compared to February 2025. The 12-month rolling annual growth rate sits at 2.4%.
Brian Loftus, macroeconomic and residential market analyst at HARDI, put the number in context. January and February are historically low-volume months, making them poor predictors of the full year. But 4.6% after two consecutive months of declines is still a number worth noting.
One of the cleaner signals in the report is Days Sales Outstanding, which came in near 38 days, consistent with February 2025. Customers are paying their bills on time. That matters. In a stressed market, DSO starts creeping up as contractors and distributors stretch payment terms to manage cash flow. Stable DSO at 38 days suggests the market's problems are contained, not systemic.
The modest annual growth rate is the one number to watch. 2.4% over 12 months is not a recovery. It's a floor. The question for the rest of 2026 is whether spring selling season demand can push that number meaningfully higher, or whether affordability pressures and elevated equipment prices keep a lid on volume.
