If contractors needed another number to explain why HVAC companies are racing into data centers, this is it.

New research released August 27 projects that global data-center thermal cooling requirements could rise from 28.8 million tons in 2025 to 194.6 million tons in 2035.

That is almost a sevenfold increase.

ABI Research calculates a 20.1% compound annual growth rate, driven largely by AI workloads and the infrastructure required to support them.

AI Has Changed the Cooling Density Problem

The issue is not simply that more data centers are being built.

Each facility can also require dramatically more cooling per square foot.

Traditional computing workloads could often be managed primarily through air cooling.

High-density AI clusters are pushing operators toward:

  • Direct-to-chip liquid cooling
  • CDUs
  • Advanced chilled-water systems
  • High-density air systems
  • Larger pumps
  • Heat exchangers
  • More sophisticated controls

That dramatically expands the thermal-management market.

Existing Buildings Will Need Retrofits Too

ABI also points to retrofit demand.

Not every AI workload will move into a brand-new hyperscale campus.

Existing facilities are attempting to increase computing density inside buildings whose cooling systems were designed for a different era.

That creates another market for HVAC engineers and contractors.

Existing chilled-water plants may require expansion.

Piping may need to be redesigned.

Heat rejection may need additional capacity.

Controls may need modernization.

Smart Buildings Are Following the Same Direction

The research also identifies growing demand for predictive maintenance, interoperable building platforms and AI-enabled automation across commercial buildings generally.

That means the transformation is happening in two directions.

AI is creating new HVAC loads.

And AI itself is increasingly being used to operate HVAC.

HVAC Is Becoming AI Infrastructure

Servers may attract most of the investment headlines.

But processors cannot operate without thermal management.

If ABI's forecast comes close to reality, the next decade could create one of the largest expansions of mechanical cooling infrastructure the industry has ever seen.

AI's physical bottleneck is heat — and that puts HVAC directly in the middle of the boom.