The latest U.S. employment report is showing two very different construction markets.
Construction employment increased by 11,000 jobs in September, but the gains were entirely concentrated in nonresidential work.
Nonresidential construction firms added 16,100 jobs during the month.
Residential builders and subcontractors lost 4,900.
The divergence becomes even clearer over the past year.
Nonresidential construction employment has increased by approximately 142,000 jobs, or 2.9%.
Residential construction employment has declined by roughly 32,800 jobs, or 1%.
For HVAC contractors, the specialty-trade numbers are particularly important.
Nonresidential specialty-trade contractors added 12,300 employees in September alone and approximately 84,700 over the past year.
That includes the skilled trades responsible for installing and servicing mechanical and electrical systems.
The wider U.S. economy, meanwhile, added only 29,000 jobs in September, substantially below expectations.
In other words, commercial construction is continuing to hire even while the broader labor market weakens.
Residential is moving in the opposite direction.
That has direct implications for HVAC.
Residential contractors remain exposed to affordability, mortgage rates and slower new construction.
Commercial and industrial mechanical contractors are participating in a market where major projects continue to demand skilled labor.
For distributors and manufacturers, that may increasingly produce different demand profiles depending on who their customers serve.
A business heavily dependent on new residential construction could experience a very different 2027 from one selling into large commercial mechanical work.
The HVAC market is not simply getting stronger or weaker.
It is splitting.
And September's employment numbers make that division increasingly difficult to ignore.
