SEO Title: Carrier's Data Centre Revenue Doubled to $1 Billion in 2025 — With Backlog Stretching Into 2028 | Meta: Carrier Global says data centre revenue doubled to $1 billion in 2025 with backlog extending into 2028. This single data point confirms the AI infrastructure HVAC demand wave is real and sustained. | Slug: /carrier-data-centre-revenue-billion-2025-2026 | Primary Keyword: Carrier data centre HVAC revenue 2025 2026 | Read Time: ~6 min
Carrier's Data Centre Revenue Doubled to $1 Billion in 2025 — With Backlog Stretching Into 2028
Carrier Global CEO Dave Gitlin disclosed that the company's data centre revenue doubled to $1 billion in 2025 — and that its data centre backlog extends into 2028. Two years of forward revenue visibility in a single product category is an extraordinary statement about the durability and scale of the AI infrastructure HVAC demand wave. For every contractor, distributor, and manufacturer who has been following the data centre cooling story, Carrier's $1 billion data centre revenue with a 2028 backlog is the most concrete validation available of the thesis.
The disclosure came in the context of Carrier's discussion of commercial HVAC strength amid a residential market that Gitlin acknowledged had experienced 'significant weakness' in the second half of 2025. The residential correction and the commercial acceleration are happening simultaneously — and Carrier's $1 billion data centre figure is the clearest illustration of where the commercial growth is concentrated.
The $1 Billion Data Centre Number in Full Context
Carrier's $1 billion in data centre HVAC revenue represents a doubling from approximately $500 million in 2024. That growth trajectory — doubling in a single year — is consistent with the broader data centre market data:
• Bloomberg Intelligence projects hyperscaler capital expenditure exceeding $593 billion in 2026 alone — up from approximately $350 billion in 2024
• The DOE forecasts data centre electricity consumption could nearly triple within three years — every watt of that electricity generating heat that requires HVAC management
• The global data centre cooling market is projected to reach $45.8 billion by 2033 at a 17 percent compound annual growth rate
Against those macro numbers, Carrier's doubling from $500 million to $1 billion is a company-level expression of a market-level trend. The backlog stretching into 2028 means that the revenue trajectory is not dependent on continued new project wins — it is already contracted.
Carrier Global CEO Dave Gitlin disclosed that the company's data centre HVAC revenue doubled to $1 billion in 2025, with backlog extending into 2028 — the clearest OEM-level confirmation that the AI infrastructure cooling demand wave is generating substantial, contracted, multi-year revenue for HVAC equipment manufacturers with data centre capability.
Non-Data Centre Commercial Also Strong
The Carrier disclosure, made at the Baird Global Industrial Conference in late 2025, did not frame data centre as the only commercial strength. Gitlin specifically noted that Carrier's non-data centre commercial business was also performing well — reflecting the broader commercial HVAC market strength that Trane's record bookings and Comfort Systems' record stock performance both confirm.
Healthcare construction, commercial real estate activity in Sunbelt markets, and commercial building energy efficiency investment are all contributing to above-average commercial HVAC demand independent of the data centre wave. For Carrier — which has the breadth of commercial product coverage to serve all of these segments — the confluence of data centre demand with broader commercial strength is producing the most favourable commercial market environment in the company's recent history.
The 2028 Backlog — What It Means Strategically
A data centre backlog stretching into 2028 means Carrier has contracted data centre HVAC equipment deliveries for the next two-plus years. This level of forward visibility is unprecedented in the HVAC equipment business and has specific strategic implications:
• Manufacturing planning: Carrier can plan manufacturing capacity, component procurement, and workforce investment against a known demand schedule rather than forecasted demand. This enables more efficient operations and reduces the cost of capacity uncertainty.
• Pricing confidence: With a full backlog, Carrier has limited incentive to compete aggressively on price for incremental data centre projects — the capacity is spoken for. This changes the competitive dynamic for contractors specifying Carrier equipment on data centre projects.
• Competitive signal: The Carrier data centre backlog is a public signal to every competing manufacturer that this market is real, large, and growing. Every competitor who does not have a comparable backlog or data centre revenue position is watching the market develop without them.
The Residential Offset: 7.5 Million Units Versus 9 Million
Against the data centre strength, Gitlin was candid about the residential market: 'As we exit 2025, we expect the market will be well-below this rate at about 7.5 million units' — compared to the historical replacement rate of approximately 9 million units annually (approximately 8 million replacements plus 1 to 1.5 million for new construction).
The 7.5 million unit rate represents approximately a 17 percent shortfall from the 9 million unit replacement pace. That shortfall is the residential correction that has been suppressing residential HVAC revenue — driven by the 34 percent consumer deferral rate that ServiceTitan documented and the equipment prices that remain 40 percent above 2020 levels.
For manufacturers like Carrier with both strong commercial and softening residential businesses, the 2025 to 2026 period has been a tale of two markets. The commercial data centre strength has more than offset the residential weakness at the total revenue level — but the divergence creates very different competitive dynamics within the same company's product portfolio.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much data centre revenue does Carrier have?
Carrier Global's data centre HVAC revenue doubled to $1 billion in 2025, up from approximately $500 million in 2024, with backlog extending into 2028 according to CEO Dave Gitlin's disclosure at the Baird Global Industrial Conference.
How strong is Carrier's commercial HVAC business?
Carrier's commercial HVAC business is experiencing its strongest period in recent history, led by $1 billion in data centre revenue with a 2028 backlog. Non-data centre commercial business is also performing well. The commercial strength is more than offsetting residential market softness driven by consumer deferral and elevated replacement costs.
What is the HVAC residential market doing in 2026?
Carrier CEO Dave Gitlin forecast the US residential HVAC market at approximately 7.5 million units as of late 2025 — approximately 17% below the historical 9 million unit replacement pace. The shortfall reflects consumer deferral of replacement due to elevated equipment costs and economic uncertainty. Carrier anticipated mid-single-digit price increases in 2026 to offset ongoing material cost inflation.
