Carrier Q1 2026: Data Centre Orders Up 500%, Commercial HVAC Up 35% — The AI Infrastructure Boom in Numbers

Carrier Global Corporation (NYSE: CARR) reported first quarter 2026 results on April 30, 2026, delivering $5.34 billion in net sales — a 2% increase versus Q1 2025 — and adjusted EPS of $0.57, beating consensus estimates. The headline numbers were solid. But the number that defined the quarter was the one Chairman and CEO David Gitlin led with: 'Orders in our global Commercial HVAC business increased 35%, helped by data centres which were up over 500% in the quarter.'

Five hundred percent. Data centre orders at Carrier did not grow by 50% or 100% or even 200% — they grew by more than five times in a single quarter versus the prior year. And the company's commercial HVAC backlog increased by a strong double-digit sequential amount — giving management the confidence to reaffirm its full-year outlook and commit to a sixth consecutive year of double-digit growth in commercial HVAC.

What Drove the Performance

Gitlin's commentary across the Q1 2026 earnings call and press release confirmed the drivers:

• Data centre dominance: The AI infrastructure investment wave — hyperscaler capital expenditure programmes from Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and others — is generating demand for Carrier's commercial chiller and air handling solutions at a pace that far exceeds historical commercial HVAC growth rates. Data centres are now Carrier's fastest-growing commercial HVAC segment by a significant margin.

• Commercial HVAC backlog: The sequential increase in commercial HVAC backlog means that Carrier's future revenue visibility is improving — more orders booked, more revenue secured for future quarters. For a long-cycle business like commercial HVAC equipment, backlog growth is a leading indicator of sustained revenue.

• Residential softness offset: CSA Residential (Carrier's North American residential HVAC business) came in better than expected but remains in a challenging environment. The commercial strength is explicitly offsetting residential weakness — a bifurcated market dynamic that is consistent with what every major HVAC OEM is reporting.

• Aftermarket growth: Carrier reported its fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth in its aftermarket business — the service, parts, and maintenance segment that provides recurring revenue regardless of new equipment installation volumes.

Carrier's Q1 2026 results — $5.34 billion in revenue, data centre orders up over 500%, commercial HVAC orders up 35%, and a double-digit sequential increase in commercial backlog — confirm the AI infrastructure boom is translating into the largest single-quarter commercial HVAC demand surge in the company's recent history, providing confidence for a sixth consecutive year of double-digit commercial HVAC growth.

The Residential Offset — What's Still Challenging

Carrier's residential HVAC results — particularly in the Americas — remain under pressure from the same dynamics suppressing the broader residential market: high equipment prices (Carrier noted additional price increases to offset tariff and raw material costs), elevated consumer deferral rates, and the general affordability constraints that have been compressing residential HVAC replacement demand since 2023.

CSA Light Commercial and CSE Residential (European residential) both delivered growth. But CSA Residential — the North American residential replacement market — came in 'better than expected' rather than strong. In a results call context, 'better than expected' means the beat was against a low bar. The residential market is not yet in recovery.

Full Year Guidance Reaffirmed

Carrier reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance at the midpoint of $2.80 per share, implying confidence that the commercial HVAC strength will be sustained through the remainder of 2026 despite ongoing residential headwinds and macroeconomic uncertainty. The company also continues to expect double-digit revenue growth in data centre cooling specifically — guided by the $5 billion-plus backlog it has built in that segment.

Frequently Asked Questions

What were Carrier's Q1 2026 results?

Carrier Global reported Q1 2026 net sales of $5.34 billion (up 2%), adjusted EPS of $0.57 (beating estimates), commercial HVAC orders up 35%, and data centre orders up over 500%. The company reaffirmed full-year adjusted EPS guidance at the midpoint of $2.80 per share and expects a sixth consecutive year of double-digit commercial HVAC growth.

Why are Carrier's data centre orders up 500%?

The AI infrastructure investment wave — hyperscaler capital expenditure programmes from Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and others — is generating extraordinary demand for commercial HVAC cooling solutions in data centres. Carrier's data centre order growth reflects the scale of this investment and its market position as a leading provider of commercial chiller and precision cooling solutions for mission-critical facilities.