A June 2026 survey by SimplyWise of more than 1,100 respondents ages 18 to 29 asked them to rank which careers they believed would be replaced by AI in the next decade on a one-to-six scale, with one being most AI-safe. HVAC technician received the lowest score of the careers listed — 2.11 — reflecting the growing recognition among a younger generation that the physical work of installing, servicing, and maintaining HVAC systems is structurally resistant to displacement by artificial intelligence systems that can automate knowledge work but cannot replace hands-on mechanical judgment.
Combined with the data center construction boom driven by AI infrastructure investment, the result is an unusual demand configuration: the very technology that is making young people choose skilled trades is simultaneously driving the demand for more HVAC technicians than the training pipeline can currently produce. Brian Kelly, director of HVACR service with the United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipe Fitting Industry of the United States and Canada, said the narrative across the country has changed: more people are choosing to come into the trade rather than the four-year college route because of AI, because AI cannot replace plumbers, pipefitters, and HVAC technicians — AI might streamline some aspects of the work but it is not going to replace them.
Data Centers Require Specialized Technical Skills
Robert Vilches, training specialist with the United Association, said data center cooling is not typical commercial HVAC work. A technician entering the data center segment requires a strong background in customer service, hydronics, fluid dynamics, cooling towers, pumps, variable frequency drives, electrical systems, and building automation — the everyday skill sets for most experienced commercial technicians, but a comprehensive combination that requires deliberate training for technicians who have spent their careers primarily in residential or light commercial work. Older data centers also require renovations and upgrades approximately every seven years as computing density increases and efficiency standards evolve, creating retrofit and upgrade work alongside new construction that keeps experienced commercial technicians in active demand.
The data center environment also has operational characteristics that go beyond technical capability. Vilches said critical infrastructure clients have specific ways of examining projects and communicating that require a nuanced approach, and that many technicians have difficulty adapting because essentially everything has a written procedure that must be followed — nothing is done without approval, even something as simple as tightening a bolt on a leaking flange. The ability to operate within those procedural frameworks, pass background checks, and maintain the documentation standards that data center operators require is part of the qualification profile that separates contractors who can access this market from those who cannot.
Manufacturers Are Building Training Infrastructure
Two major HVAC manufacturers have announced substantial training facility investments aimed directly at the data center gap. Johnson Controls announced the launch of a dedicated data center training institute at its Advanced Development and Engineering Center in New Freedom, Pennsylvania, expected to open in 2027 and to include hands-on training in advanced thermal management technologies. Buddy Saucier, vice president of HVAC service operations at Johnson Controls, said the work is meaningful, the demand is growing fast, and data centers do not run without skilled technicians.
Daikin Applied broke ground on a $30 million Solutions & Technical Institute in Plymouth, Minnesota in June 2026, scheduled to open in 2027 with 120 new training pathways focused on advanced controls, system-level diagnostics, and sustainable technologies. Yu Nishiwaki, COO for Daikin Applied, said the demands placed on the industry are evolving rapidly and workforce capability has become a true differentiator. Bryan Orr, founder of HVAC School, said contractors can play a vital role in easing the instructor shortage by partnering with local training programs to push past traditional classroom limitations, advocating for curriculum changes that prioritize hands-on applied learning, and exposing instructors and students to the diagnostic software, mobile apps, and manufacturer literature that technicians are actually using on jobsites today.
The Demand Is Real, the Pipeline Is Not Yet Ready
Kelly said the United Association's biggest challenge right now is not finding people — it is finding enough room to fit them into training programs. Classroom availability, qualified instructors, and apprenticeship slots are not keeping pace with the demand. Google has committed $50 million to support skilled trades workers who will build and maintain data centers, and Meta made a similar investment — signaling that the major technology companies building the AI infrastructure are aware that the human training pipeline for HVAC and mechanical systems is a constraint on the pace at which they can build their facilities. The SimplyWise survey found that 48.9% of respondents ages 18 to 29 said they would probably or definitely pick trade school over college in today's environment — but only 10.2% said they were actually currently pursuing skilled trades, indicating that the attitudinal shift toward trades is still translating slowly into actual enrollment choices.
