Apex Service Partners, one of the most active private equity-backed HVAC roll-up platforms in the United States, closed approximately 60 add-on acquisitions in 2025 — more disclosed HVAC deal volume from a single platform than the entire verified plumbing roll-up cohort combined, according to CT Acquisitions tracking data.
That number tells you something important about where the HVAC industry is going. PE-backed deal volume in HVAC services has surged from 8% of all transactions in 2023 to 23% in 2024. Platforms including Apex, Wrench Group, Sila Services, and Blackstone-backed Champions Group — acquired in February 2026 for approximately $2.5 billion — are competing aggressively for the same pool of owner-operated businesses.
What roll-ups are buying: The most attractive acquisition targets share a specific profile: $1 million to $5 million in EBITDA, at least 50% of revenue from service agreements, and a geographic footprint in high-density suburban markets. Businesses that hit those metrics are seeing EBITDA multiples of 6x to 10x, up significantly from where the market was three years ago.
The consolidation dynamic for independents: For contractors who aren't selling, the consolidation wave creates a double pressure. On one side, PE-backed competitors have access to capital for marketing, technology, and hiring that independent shops cannot match on their own. On the other side, the technician labour market tightens as roll-ups offer structured career paths, benefits, and training programs to recruit from the same pool.
The service agreement advantage: The reason PE buyers pay a premium for recurring revenue is the same reason independent contractors should be building it. A business with strong maintenance agreement penetration — 30% or more of revenue from recurring contracts — is worth more, more stable in downturns, and more defensible against price competition from large operators.
The data from 2026: Capstone Partners' April 2026 HVAC Equipment Sector M&A update noted that strategic buyers retained 68.9% of deal volume in 2025 but that PE activity is expected to accelerate in 2026 as macroeconomic conditions improve. For independent operators, 2026 is probably the most favourable environment in the current cycle to either prepare a business for sale or to put distance between your operation and the roll-ups by investing in what they value most: recurring revenue and customer retention.
