The Air-Conditioning, Heating, & Refrigeration Institute's May 2026 shipment data, released July 13, show heat pump shipments once again outpacing the rest of the HVAC equipment lineup, even as the broader market shows only modest signs of recovery from a slow start to the year. Combined air conditioner and heat pump shipments hit 919,685 units in May, up 6.7% from 862,129 a year earlier, the largest May total on record when measured against 2025 and 2024.
Heat Pump Shipments Lead a Seasonal Rebound
Air conditioners alone shipped 523,132 units in May, up 10.2% from 474,519 in May 2025, though still below 2024 levels, suggesting a rebound in conventional cooling demand heading into summer rather than a full recovery. Heat pump shipments came in at 396,553 units, up 2.3% from 387,610 a year earlier and an 8.4% increase over May 2024 volumes. Year-to-date through May, combined air conditioner and heat pump shipments sit at 3.69 million units, down 1.2% from 3.74 million a year ago, with air conditioners down 3.4% for the year while heat pump shipments are still up 1.8%, the only cooling category showing year-to-date growth. AHRI's data followed an earlier April report that similarly showed a modest cooling rebound emerging from an otherwise soft 2026 market.
Furnaces and Water Heaters Remain Soft
Gas warm-air furnace shipments fell 6.3% in May to 265,734 units, continuing a softer heating trend seen earlier in the year, while oil furnaces, a small niche mostly concentrated in the Northeast, rose 12.2% to 1,871 units. Water heater shipments declined across the board: residential gas storage units fell 1.8% to 347,865, and residential electric storage units fell 7.5% to 411,726, though electric models continue to outpace gas in both monthly and year-to-date totals, extending a trend AHRI has tracked since at least 2010. Year-to-date gas furnace shipments sit at 1.23 million units, down 10.5% from 1.38 million, while oil furnace shipments are up 11.5% to 12,790 units for the year.
Heat Pump Shipments Have More Than Doubled Since 2010
AHRI's historical data put May 2010 heat pump shipments at 189,854 units, meaning May 2026 heat pump shipments of 396,553 represent a 108.9% increase over 16 years, the steadiest growth trend among any equipment category AHRI tracks. Gas furnace shipments, by contrast, have swung up and down over the same period without a clear direction, peaking at 323,171 units in May 2022 before falling below 300,000 the following year and staying there. Electric storage water heater shipments, meanwhile, sat at 285,078 units in May 2010 and stood at 439,756 as of 2024, another data point in the broader electrification trend AHRI's monthly releases have tracked for years. Oil furnaces, despite making up only about 1% of the heating market in May 2026, have posted steady if modest growth every May since 2021, holding on as a niche but stable category concentrated in colder Northeast markets.
Why Heat Pump Shipment Data Matters for HVAC Distributors and Manufacturers
AHRI's monthly shipment releases function as one of the HVAC industry's few real-time indicators of where equipment demand is actually headed, months ahead of quarterly earnings reports from Carrier, Trane or Lennox. Distributors use the data to plan inventory levels heading into peak cooling season, manufacturers use it to calibrate production schedules, and contractors use the broader trend to gauge how much of their future call volume will involve heat pump systems rather than conventional gas equipment. The consistency of heat pump shipment growth over 16 years, even through years when overall shipments declined, is why manufacturers have continued investing in heat pump production capacity regardless of short-term swings in tariff policy or state-level fuel mandates, and why distributors increasingly treat heat pumps as a baseline stocking category rather than a specialty product line.
What's Next for AHRI's Shipment Data
AHRI typically releases shipment data on the second Friday of each month for activity two months prior, meaning June 2026 figures are due in mid-August. Whether heat pump shipments can sustain their growth streak through the back half of the year will depend partly on how ongoing federal rulemakings, including the DOE's Process Rule proposal and ongoing refrigerant transition deadlines, affect equipment costs and availability heading into next year's buying season, along with how court fights over gas furnace efficiency standards ultimately resolve. Analysts who track the monthly releases will also be watching whether the modest air conditioner rebound seen in April and May carries through the remainder of the cooling season, or whether it proves to be a temporary catch-up after a slow start to 2026 rather than a genuine turn in underlying replacement demand.
