AAON reported Q1 2026 net sales of $496.9 million, up 54.3% year-over-year, with total company backlog more than doubling to a record $2.13 billion. The results, reported May 7, prompted AAON to sharply raise its full-year 2026 outlook from 18-20% revenue growth to 40-45% — one of the largest single-quarter guidance increases in the HVAC equipment sector this year.
The number behind the number is BASX. AAON's data center thermal management brand posted sales growth of 72.4% year-over-year and a book-to-bill ratio exceeding 2x for the fourth consecutive quarter. BASX-branded backlog reached $1.62 billion, up 160% year-over-year, with liquid cooling sales specifically up 186.8% on a trailing twelve-month basis.
CEO Matt Tobolski told analysts the company now expects roughly $1 billion in BASX revenue for 2026 alone, and that BASX capacity potential extends 'above $2 billion for sure' as Longview and Memphis facility investments come fully online. Tobolski described the data center thermal management market as growing at approximately 30% — and AAON's growth rate within it as outpacing the market, indicating continued share gains.
What it means for the legacy AAON brand: While BASX captured the headlines, AAON-branded equipment — the company's traditional rooftop and commercial HVAC line — also performed well, with sales up 42% year-over-year and 11% sequentially as production throughput improved. Management noted that AAON-branded backlog declined sequentially by 3.1%, but framed this as a deliberate and positive signal: manufacturing output finally exceeded order intake after a period of extended lead times, meaning the company is catching up on a backlog rather than falling further behind.
The margin tradeoff: AAON's gross margin fell to 25.1% in Q1, down 170 basis points year-over-year, reflecting outsourcing costs, the Memphis facility ramp, and tariff impacts. Management revised full-year gross margin guidance down to 27-28% from a prior 29-31% range — a deliberate tradeoff of near-term margin for the production capacity needed to capture the BASX opportunity at scale.
Why this matters beyond AAON: The results landed one day after Johnson Controls raised its own annual profit outlook citing stronger thermal management demand, and follow Carrier's 500% data center order growth and Trane's 160% applied equipment bookings growth reported earlier in Q1 2026 earnings season. Four of the largest HVAC equipment manufacturers in the country are now reporting the same structural story from different angles: the AI data center buildout is the single largest demand driver in the industry, and equipment makers with credible liquid cooling and precision thermal management capability are being rewarded with premium growth and, in AAON's case, a 36% single-day stock jump.
For contractors and distributors carrying AAON product: extended lead times on AAON-branded equipment, which the company is actively working to shorten, should factor into project timelines for the remainder of 2026. For commercial contractors evaluating data center service capability, AAON's results are further confirmation that liquid cooling and precision thermal management competency is the highest-growth technical skill set in commercial HVAC right now.
